Some Taiwan-based PC and memory makers believe that DRAM contract prices will stop falling in mid-August and rebound later in the month, while others are more pessimistic, thinking prices may keep going down through the end of 2011.
Nonetheless, the consensus among them is that the near-term memory market will see NAND flash outperform DRAM.
DRAM contract prices will continue their downward trend in July, as demand is being affected by stagnant PC sales in particular, according to industry sources in Taiwan. But growth in DRAM content per PC appears to be slowing, the sources observed, adding that price drops have failed to encourage OEMs to raise memory content per box in their products.
Though several chipmakers previously experienced yield challenges beyond 50nm, the DRAM market was in oversupply for most of the first half of 2011, the sources pointed out. The only constraint now is demand and not production, the sources added.
A potential rebound in DRAM contract prices in late August is being looked forward by some companies, which believe seasonal demand should surface. But some have argued that sales are unlikely to enjoy peak season effects this year.
In contrast, NAND flash contract prices are expected to rebound from the middle of the third quarter, according to the sources. But pricing trends for the fourth quarter will need to be further assessed, the sources added.