Global notebook shipments for the second quarter of 2018 are likely to see a lower sequential growth than recorded in the same period of 2017, and may fall by over 5% on year, Digitimes Research estimates.

The shipment performance will be affected by high inventories and shrinking Chromebook sales in the education sector. This is despite two major favorable seasonal factors: the launch of some new products and back-to-school demand.

In terms of shipment performance for the second quarter, No. 1 vendor HP is expected to see a slight growth and continue its deployments in more niche markets such as low-end gaming notebooks and workstations. Affected by the ongoing trade spats between China and the US, Lenovo may lose the opportunity to bid for American government procurement projects, with tender projects from enterprises also likely to be impacted.

As the No. 3 vendor, Dell will continue to enjoy stable shipment performance in the business-use notebook market, with Chromebooks and high-end slim notebook models to serve as growth driver. Meanwhile, as Apple is not expected to start ramping up shipments of its new entry-level MacBook series in June, the second quarter will remain a slow season for the company.

And Taiwan's Acer has a chance of replacing Apple as the No. 4 vendor by shipment in the second quarter, given growing US market demand for gaming notebooks.

Among Taiwan ODMs, Compal Electronics is likely to see its share of shipments pick up significantly in the second quarter, mainly bolstered by increased orders from both HP and Dell. This will help Compal narrow its gap with the No. 1 ODM Quanta Computer.

Statistics from Digitimes Research showed that global notebook shipments excluding 2-in-1 detachable models reached only 34.22 million units in the first quarter of 2018, falling on year for the second consecutive quarter.