SEMI's latest statistics suggests that capital expenditure will increase to US$41.1 billion in 2011, the highest on record, according to the industry association. The prediction is revised downwards to a 23% increase from the 31% growth estimated previously, as some companies have adjsuted plans due to broader economic conditions.
Although fab equipment spending for 2012 will decline, the total for the year may still be the second highest on record, SEMI indicated.
"Changes in the global economy affect the semiconductor industry. Economic developments in recent months decreased consumer confidence and spending, and the semiconductor industry has reacted to this slowdown," said Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, senior analyst of fab information in the SEMI Industry Research and Statistics group.
In 2011, SEMI counts 223 facilities spending on equipment. Of these, 77 projects are for LED dedicated facilities. In 2012, 190 facilities will start or continue equipping with 72 LED projects, SEMI said.
The highest spending in 2011 occurs in the Americas with about US$10 billion, followed by Taiwan with about US$9 billion, according to SEMI. The Americas region last led spending in 2002. Although Intel spends the most, another key reason for America's lead is Samsung's spending of about US$2.5 to US$3 billion in its Austin fab, SEMI observed. In 2012, Korea is predicted to step ahead of the Americas, with over US$10 billion in fab equipment spending, followed by Taiwan at US$9.2 billion.
Over the last few months, some companies announced cuts in capex for 2011, but for a number of companies, capex plans remain unchanged, according to SEMI. Some announced even slight increases, though caution is becoming more apparent in the market, said the association.
As the semiconductor industry adjusts to the market with some spending cuts, the SEMI World Fab Forecast report also predicts that the capacity ramp will slow. SEMI said 2011 growth will slow to 6.8% from the 9.3% predicted in May. Looking ahead, the industry may not be able to respond to rapidly increasing demand, for example in the NAND flash market. It takes about 1.5 years to bring a fab from ground breaking to volume production, so in order to see capacity ramp increase in 2012 or 2013, construction projects must start now.