Since the third quarter, the demand for mobile terminal stocking has weakened, causing a major growth engine of the original factory to stall, and the consumer market is facing more severe supply and demand challenges. Facing the mobile end, the original factory adjusts prices according to the market under the tone of stabilizing market share, continues to transfer the excess production capacity of mobile phones and PCs beyond the demand plan to servers, and regulates the actual supply and demand level of the consumer market. Strive for more profit margins in products with relatively mild competition and slightly increase the price of server-side ASP. From a general perspective, original manufacturers tend to stabilize the market and maintain profits. For products with fierce local competition, they will lower prices that lack demand support and adopt an attitude of adapting to the market to maintain their market share. Therefore, the market structure fluctuates, and different product lines emerge from their own independent market trends.

In terms of NAND, with the release of new process capacity from the original factory, the overall supply of NAND is abundant, and the demand side inventory level has gradually increased. However, the NAND capacity carried by servers is limited, and the growth of NAND supply is causing NAND ASP to peak. Due to the larger number of NAND suppliers and more complex process categories compared to DRAM, it is more difficult for original manufacturers to control the supply of NAND in the market, and the uncertainty of NAND supply strategies is also greater. On the other hand, although the surge in demand for QLC SSDs in the North American server market this year has led to tight supply of some original QLC NAND, the progress of server and mobile QLC imports in the domestic market is slow, and the overall price pressure of QLC NAND is greater than that of TLC NAND due to the lack of demand support. Some original manufacturers may adjust their QLC NAND production capacity to TLC NAND to alleviate shipment pressure.

In terms of DRAM, structural differentiation is more severe, and DRAM products fluctuate in price. Due to the rapid increase in production capacity of some original storage factories' LPDDR4X to supplement supply, the supply-demand imbalance of LPDDR4X has led to a decline in prices, and the difficulty of a single point price increase for LPDDR5X has increased. Some original manufacturers plan to reduce production of old process DRAM products, decrease 1z DRAM capacity supply, and accelerate the transition to advanced processes such as 1b DRAM. Overall, the main manufacturers will reduce DDR4/LPDDR4X production and increase server DDR5 and HBM production. It is expected that by the end of 2024, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will have a combined monthly production capacity of 300000 HBM wafers. Next year, the global HBM market size will exceed $30 billion, and HBM will account for approximately 15% to 20% of DRAM wafer production capacity.