The global supply for DRAM memory in 2012 will be less than the average level of supply over the past years, hence the industry is likely to get rid of oversupply problems in the second half of the year, according to sources at chipmakers.
As for NAND flash, the industry may face shortages in the fourth quarter of 2012 propelled by robust demand for solid state drives (SSD), the sources indicated. NAND flash demand for SSDs is expected to drastically increase later in 2012, the sources believe.
The bit growth of the global DRAM industry will be limited to less than 30% in 2012, compared to over 50% usually seen in previous years, the sources said. The growth deceleration, however, will help the industry achieve a supply-demand balance as early as the second half of 2012, the sources noted.
Meanwhile, the growing markets for tablets and storage systems for cloud computing environments are set to consume significant quantities of DRAM chips as well as the rising memory densities for each device, the sources said. The increase in demand could mitigate the impact of a shrinking PC market, the sources observed.
As for NAND flash memory, demand will be strong enough to digest the industry's capacity, the sources believes. In addition to SSDs, smartphones, tablets, ultrabooks and embedded storage devices are other demand drivers for NAND flash, the sources said.
In particular, the market for high-density NAND flash will likely face oversupply in the fourth quarter of 2012, driven mainly by growing demand for SSDs, the sources indicated.
In other news, the sources suggested that the integration of the DRAM industry will necessarily become a trend. Elpida Memory's bankruptcy filing will likely encourage non-Korean industry players to move forward with consolidation for competitive reasons, the sources said.
Major DRAM producers Samsung Electronics and Hynix Semiconductor have grabbed a combined 65-70% share of the global market. Despite the pair grasping the majority share, other players are still able to collectively defend their market share, the sources noted. |