With delivery lead times for immersion scanners extending, supply from upstream DRAM makers will not grow substantially until the fourth quarter of 2010, according to DK Tsai, chairman of memory packaging and testing service provider Powertech Technology (PTI). However, the constraints in supply may avoid some impulsive decisions that could later lead to industry-wide oversupply, Tsai commented.
Speaking at an investors' conference on Thursday, Tsai said spot prices for 1Gb DDR3 chips are likely to stabilize and average US$3 in the short term. The level implies a healthy supply/demand situation, Tsai indicated.
DRAM chipmakers are speeding up their sub-50nm migrations in order to produce DDR3 at a competitive cost. iSuppli has predicted DDR3's share of the DRAM market will rise to 50.9% in the second quarter outpacing DDR2, whereas  has identified DDR3 as the leading technology for PC memory for the first quarter.
As to NAND flash, Tsai indicated the sector will be buoyed by smartphone and SSD, as well as tablet PC applications in 2010. As NAND flash producers tend to be more cautious about output expansions, NAND chip prices will be more stable compared to DRAM in 2010, according to Tsai.
Tsai estimated PTI's overall utilization rate at 95% in the first quarter. The memory backend house saw its utilization rate exceed the mark in the fourth quarter of 2009, when it enjoyed revenue and profit growth sequentially.
PTI expects to see 20% revenue growth in 2010, according to Tsai. Capex for the year is set at NT$9 billion, of which NT$4 billion will go towards packaging capacity expansions, NT$2 billion testing, and the reminder for factory construction.