The appearance of Apple's iPad may create tight supply of NAND flash and delay the transition to solid-state drives (SSD) in PCs, according to sources from hard drive makers.
Apple, which has enjoyed success with its iPods and iPhones, has a chance of making its recently-announced iPad product a significant market for NAND flash memory in 2010, the sources said. Apple consumes almost one-third of total NAND flash output, and could tighten supply again with the potential success of the iPad, the sources indicated.
The cost of NAND flash has been a major factor slowing down the adoption of SSDs in the PC sector, the sources observed. Even during a challenging 2009, NAND flash suppliers were still able to reverse the oversupply and stabilize prices by cutting back their production.
With the iPad likely to grab most memory supplies, prices may increase causing higher prices for SSDs, the sources said. Though major chip vendors have ramped production using 30nm-class or even sub-30nm processes, NAND flash prices are still on the rise for 2010, according to the sources.
The sources also estimated the NAND flash industry's transition to 20nm process technology is unlikely to take place until the second half of 2011. NAND flash prices are expected to fall significantly when 20nm becomes a major process node for major chip producers.
IDC said in a January 2010 report it believes the largest market opportunity for SSDs is in PCs. However, the research firm also pointed out that SSD price points and storage capacities must be competitive with HDD costs before broader adoption will occur.