The steady increase in PC capabilities that has justified the upgrade cycle and fueled the long-term growth of the PC market is undergoing a historical deceleration, as evidenced by the slowing increase in dynamic random access memory (DRAM) content in notebooks and desktops since 2007.

Annual growth in the average DRAM usage per shipped PC has been slowing dramatically since peaking in 2007, according to a market report from information and analytics provider IHS, El Segundo CA. Following a 21.4% increase in 2012, the average growth of DRAM content per PC will decline to a record low of 17.4% this year, as presented in the attached figure. This compares to the high point of 56.1% in 2007, and 49.9% in 2008.

 “For a generation, PCs have steadily improved their hardware performance and capabilities every year, with faster microprocessors, rising storage capacities and major increases in DRAM content,” says Clifford Leimbach, memory analyst at IHS. “These improvements—largely driven by rising performance demands of new operating system software—have justified the replacement cycle for PCs, compelling consumers and businesses to buy new machines to keep pace. However, on the DRAM front, the velocity of the increase has slackened. This slowdown reflects the maturity of the PC platform as well as a change in the nature of notebook computers as OEMs adjust to the rise of alternative systems—namely smartphones and media tablets.”

 The growth in DRAM loading in PCs is expected remain in a low range in the coming years, rising by 21.3 percent in 2014 to and then continuing in the 20.0 percent range until at least 2016.

Notebooks slim down on DRAM

Notebooks increasingly are adopting ultrathin form factors and striving to increase battery life in order to become more competitive with popular media tablets. Because of this, DRAM chips must share limited space on the PC motherboard with other semiconductors that control the notebook’s other functions. Incorporating more DRAM bits can limit other notebook capabilities.

Notebook makers have shown a willingness to limit increase in DRAM on their systems, rather than sacrifice the thin form factor or eschew other features.