The conventional wisdom is to blame Microsoft. Windows 8, after all, makes a fine target. It’s weird, customers don’t want or need to adjust to it, and it has certainly failed to spur PC sales the way that many were hoping it would. After that, we turn to tablets and smartphones. PCs are specialized equipment, that argument goes. Now that people have wide access to post-PC devices, they just don’t need clunky old laptops and desktops anymore. Both of these are compelling, and important reasons for the PC markets catastrophic 14 percent drop this year, but they might not be the only reason. What if the real problem is that PCs are just too good?

At Slate, Will Oremus thinks that the biggest problem for the PC market is that old PCs are working just fine. PCs practically invented the “obsolete by the time you get home” paradigm for consumer electronics, but it just isn’t like that any more, he argues. Regular upgrades are no longer as important, so people don’t buy as many PCs:

“In the past, you had to replace your computer every few years or else it would become hopelessly bogged down trying to deal with the latest desktop applications, operating systems, and Internet technologies. But thanks to Moore’s Law, your average PC’s processing power now exceeds most people’s daily needs by a healthy margin. Meanwhile, the rise of the cloud has reduced the need for extra memory.

It’s a compelling argument and one that says just as much about what could have been previously inflated PC numbers as the current crash. It would also explain why enterprise, which still uses personal computers, isn’t shoring up the market like it has in the past. Enterprise is still using PCs, but it’s just not buying as many new ones. An IT staff on hand to repair broken computers obviates the need for new ones. Basically, Oremus is saying that PCs have become durable goods, and the market should respond accordingly. With the continued rise of tablets, PCs may become specialty goods as well, which is a recipe for a much smaller market.

If that is the case, we may see a similar thing happen to post-PC devices in a few years, especially with the accelerated upgrade cycle. Already, we’re reaching the point where people need to ask themselves whether the latest redesign is really worth making the switch. What happens once mobile device’s capabilities stabilize at something more than powerful enough for most users? We could see a similar crash, where people just don’t feel compelled to buy as quickly as they used to.

Smartphones are slightly more insulated from that problem because contracts allow manufacturers and carriers to engineer the upgrade cycle themselves, and the average smartphone goes through a lot more punishment than the average PC. Tablets might have something to worry about, however — people treat those more or less like laptops. Once we have a tablet that works just fine, why bother upgrading?

All my Apple devices seem to mysteriously break after two years or so, however, so it may have already considered this problem… Or I may just be terrible at keeping track of my devices.