The market for DRAM chips will likely face a serious shortage in the second half of 2010. With suppliers having decelerated their production growth and a gradual rebound in demand for PCs, the research firm predicts the DRAM market will be moving toward a more balanced supply/demand situation over the next two years.
combined capex at DRAM chipmakers worldwide will grow around 80% to US$7.85 billion in 2010, and reach US$10-12 billion in 2011 and 2012. However, demand growth triggered by strong PC sales may outpace the supply side's expansion pace, the firm indicated.
Demand for DRAM chips will slightly lag aggregate supply in the first quarter of 2010, leading to a price drop of 10-20% sequentially. Prices for DDR3, which is set to account for 60% of total DRAM, are expected to slide less significantly than the DDR2 segment.
However, DRAM prices will stop falling in the second quarter of 2010, prior to a supply shortage of the chip during the second half of the year.