The global NAND flash memory market is showing signs of slowing down in the third and fourth quarters as traditional growth drivers have tapered off in strength, according to IHS.

　　Total NAND shipments were expected to have grown 8% in the third quarter once final figures are released, down from 9% in the second quarter. For the final quarter of 2013, NAND shipments will expand at a projected 5%, less than the third-quarter performance and also much lower than the 16% rise seen a year ago, IHS indicated.

　　The hot cycle for flash memory appears to be running out as density growth levels off in many leading NAND categories, IHS observed. Moreover, few devices in the short-term horizon promise higher NAND loading, further moderating growth. Current demand dynamics, in fact, look less solid than during the last 18 months, IHS believes.

　　In smartphones, for instance, the low-density entry segment now leads growth of the smartphone space, and NAND use here is more limited than in high-end smartphones where more flash memory is often needed in lieu of a microSD card slot. Meanwhile, newly released flagship handsets from Apple, Samsung and Sony have not added larger density options compared to predecessor models at the time of their launch.

　　Streaming media options and free cloud storage further diminish prospects for NAND loading. This is true in all three major mobile operating systems - Apple's iOS, Google's Android and Microsoft's Windows Phone - so that the need to store data in local devices is less of a problem, thereby obviating the requirement for greater storage.

　　Furthermore, consumer interest in recent years has been lukewarm in several NAND-heavy device categories like game consoles, PCs, e-readers and USB drives. And in media tablets, the rapid transition to lower-cost 7- and 8-inch sizes is squeezing product price points - and, therefore, flash densities, according to IHS.

　　The near-term slowing of density growth is helping to extend the already advantageous position of embedded multimedia cards (eMMC), a low-cost NAND storage solution, in mobile devices like smartphones and tablets. The preference for eMMC is at the expense of faster solutions like universal flash storage (UFS), which boasts enhanced performance and security as key focus points.

　　But because UFS is more expensive to make and integrate into products, and manufacturers are always looking to optimize costs, device makers are favoring eMMC and have prolonged its specification roadmap.

　　NAND pricing jumps; DRAM's connection with NAND

　　A fire at South Korean memory supplier SK Hynix has caused it to shift some of its NAND capacity to DRAM. And even though the impact on NAND will be small and NAND bit production in the fourth quarter is still expected to increase, the possibility of supply challenges has catalyzed major component price hikes.

　　For instance the IHS NAND price index, formulated to keep track of movements in NAND pricing over designated periods of time, has jumped nearly 8% in October, signaling some nervousness in the market.

　　The relationship between DRAM and NAND continues to be important. DRAM figures prominently in various functions, from storing mapping tables in solid-state drives, to masking slower triple-level-cell NAND in the client solid-state drives of Samsung, to providing extra speed in enterprise flash caches for sequentializing write operations.

　　And like UFS, upcoming next-generation 3D NAND is likely to require a similar performance boost, continuing the DRAM-NAND connection, IHS noted.