Despite strong growth of 12.9% in 2014, worldwide semiconductor capital spending is projected to only grow 0.8% to US$65.7 billion in 2015, according to Gartner.

Capital equipment spending will increase 5.6% in 2015, down from 11.3% in Gartner's third-quarter 2014 forecast, as manufacturers pull back on new fab construction and concentrate instead on ramping up new capacity, said the research firm.

"Equipment spending outperformed capital spending in 2014 and will continue to do so in 2015, a situation that will reverse in 2016," said Bob Johnson, research VP at Gartner. "As we get better visibility into individual company spending plans for 2015, it is apparent that caution is a prevailing sentiment, with the exception of memory where manufacturers are adding capacity in response to favorable market conditions."

Foundries will continue to outspend the logic integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) in 2015. Foundry spending is expected to increase by 4.8%, in contrast with a 5.3% decrease in total logic spending. However, Gartner's longer-term outlook for total logic spending shows a flat profile as predicted mobility market saturation will dampen the need for new capacity and create an environment where existing capacity is upgraded to the latest node.

The memory capex outlook remains strong for 2015 with a 13.5% increase anticipated in the current forecast, compared with Gartner's previous estimate of 17.7% growth. Memory manufacturers currently enjoy a strong pricing environment, which sets the stage for renewed spending growth.

Memory suppliers will shift their emphasis for new capacity from NAND flash to DRAM in 2015 to take advantage of profitable market conditions, but the emphasis on spending with shift back to NAND in 2016 and beyond as DRAM market conditions worsen, Gartner indicated.

Of the US$4.4 billion total capex reduction from Gartner's previous estimate, US$1.4 billion of that is for memory. This consists of a US$3.6 billion reduction for NAND flash, a US$0.2 million reduction for NOR flash and a US$2.4 billion increase for DRAM. Beyond 2015, as DRAM enters an oversupply condition, the forecast for NAND capex has increased over Gartner's previous estimate by US$1.7 billion in 2016, US$2.3 billion in 2017 and US$2.6 billion in 2018 as NAND manufacturers add more capacity in response to increased demand for solid-state drives.