DRAM ASPs will face acute erosion pressure as the market has became purely driven by demand, according to inSpectrum.
ASPs for mainstream 2GB DDR3 modules posted a 12% sequential drop in the first half of September, averaging at US$36, and translating to US$2.13 per Gb, Since the DDR2 segment has shifted to be more consumer-electronics related, corresponding ASPs remained stable at US$33.60 for a 2GB module, translating to US$1.98 per Gb.
PC OEMs continue to be very cautious about their procurement strategy and are reluctant to build more inventory. Most OEMs currently have an average memory inventory of three weeks, inSpectrum estimated. Despite that most PC ODMs in Taiwan posted a big sales rebound in August as compared to July, inSpectrum said it is still cautious about the overall sales picture in the third quarter, and expects notebook shipments to see a flat or mild sequential drop.
Given that PC sales are not expected to see stronger momentum, and supply will continue growing in the coming quarter, a downhill ASP trend is inevitable going forward, according to inSpectrum. Oversupply of DRAM will continue into the fourth quarter, prompting vendors to cut their prices further to stimulate content growth.
ASPs for 2GB DDR3 modules will drop below US$30 by end of the year, translating to a more than 15% drop as compared to ASPs in September, inSpectrum projected.