The global TV market reached 230 million in 2014, up 3% on year, with growth occurring in most major markets including China and the Middle East, according to statistics from DisplaySearch.
Heading into 2015 CRT and plasma units are expected to disappear from most vendors' lineups and OLED TVs are expected to reach less than one million due to high costs.
Despite large-size TV demand growing in mature economies, the statistics showed that smaller-size units are still in high demand in emerging economies. In Brazil, 30- to 39-inch units made up an overall 46% proportion of the TV market in 2014 while in India 20- to 29-inch units held a 54% share. In Russia, 32-inch and below size units comprised a 56% share.
IHS meanwhile stated that tightening supplies of LCD TV panels, which continued throughout 2014, have begun to ease in the first quarter of 2015. The rising inventory of TV panels will lead to lower prices in the second and third quarters of the year. The LCD TV panel production/demand ratio rose from 2% under-supply in third-quarter 2014 to 1% over-supply in fourth-quarter 2014 and 4% over-supply in first-quarter 2015 and is expected to continue growing to 6% in second-quarter 2015.
IHS projects that the average time LCD panel makers' TV panels remain in inventory before being shipped will gradually increase from 3.6 weeks in January 2015 to 4.3 weeks in May 2015. As inventory increases, prices of 32-inch, 40-inch, 55-inch and other key TV panel sizes will inevitably decline in second-quarter and third-quarter 2015.
ASPs for mainstream-size LCD TV panels, including 32-inch, 40-inch and 55-inch sizes, have softened since March 2015. Demand gradually declined as a result of inventory adjustments after the end of the 2014 holiday shopping season in 2014 and the 2015 Lunar New Year.
In 2014, LCD TV panel makers could not keep up with the surge in demand due to the popularity of larger screen TVs. As a result, previously accumulated panel inventories continued to decrease from first-quarter 2014 to third-quarter 2014. In fourth-quarter 2014, panel production managed to outpace demand slightly, but inventory at both TV panel manufacturers and set makers remained below normal levels, due to rising year-end demand.
"LCD panel makers have put off plans for production line renovation and new technology applications, which were originally scheduled for 2014, to 2015 because lines ran at full capacity meeting orders with strong TV panel demand last year," said Alex Kang, senior analyst for large displays at IHS. "Producers this year will adjust supply of some lines for renovation amid declining TV panel demand."
Currency fluctuation is yet another factor affecting panel demand, especially in eastern Europe, Russia, South America and other developing economies. Currency-exchange rate changes have forced TV prices to rise, which in turn has hampered consumer purchasing.
"The industry is now worried about a potential oversupply in 2015 if weakening demand turns out to be more than a seasonal factor and continues through the third quarter," Kang said. "TV set makers are considering lowering TV sales targets and downsizing orders for panels amid sluggish consumer sales caused by foreign exchange volatility." |