The price of mainstream 1Gb DDR3 chips is set to plunge by about 40% sequentially in the fourth quarter of 2010. Demand has been shrinking amid increased production by chipmakers.
Previously estimated contract prices for 2GB DDR3 modules would decrease around 30% on quarter to reach US$20 by year-end 2010. But prices have fallen by more than 30% so far in the fourth quarter, the price tracker said.
Contract prices for 1Gb DDR3 averaged US$1.22 in the second half of November, down 36% from US$1.91 in the same period of September. Meanwhile, average prices for 2GB DDR3 modules were dragged down from US$33 to US$22, a 33% decline.
Spot market prices for effectively tested (eTT) 1Gb DDR3 have slid 5% since mid-November to near US$1.30, while same-density DDR2 parts dropped at a slower pace to US$1.44.
DRAM prices are likely to continue falling through the first half of 2011, before starting to rebound toward the end of the second quarter. But if the price drops fail to spur demand and allow growth in memory content per PC, chip producers are expected to significantly cut back on production in order to stabilize prices.