Worldwide semiconductor capital equipment spending is on pace to reach US$38.4 billion in 2010, a 131.2% jump from 2009, according to Gartner. In 2011, spending is forecast to total US$38 billion, down 1%, said Gartner.
"2010 will be the strongest growth year ever for the semiconductor equipment industry, a nice rebound from the worst year ever in 2009," said Klaus Rinnen, managing vice president at Gartner. Companies should prepare for a softer 2011, where equipment purchases will focus more on capacity than technology equipment."
"Two major trends will shape capital spending going forward. The first of these trends is the emergence of NAND flash as the leading memory segment in terms of capital spending. NAND demand, fueled by the phenomenal success of media tablets, will continue strongly for the foreseeable future, and require continued high levels of investment to meet surging demand," Rinnen said. "The second trend is the strength in foundry spending, driven by competition between TSMC, Globalfoundries and Samsung at the leading edge, and by the continued move to an asset lite strategy by the majority of the world's IDMs."
All segments of the semiconductor capital equipment market experienced exceptionally strong growth rates ranging from 118% to 140% in 2010, according to Gartner.
In the wafer fab equipment (WFE) market, worldwide spending is set to reach US$29.7 billion in 2010, up 133% on year. Gartner said that strong global demand for semiconductors, along with underinvestment in 2008 and 2009, led to pent-up demand for equipment once the economy turned. However, overall fab utilization rates have been declining slowly since, as more capacity has come online and semiconductor production has slowed, becoming more aligned with end-user demand. This leads the research firm to predict that WFE growth will decline 3.4% in 2011, before increasing and returning to positive growth in 2012.
Worldwide packaging and assembly equipment (PAE) spending is projected to surpass US$5.9 billion in 2010, a 118.6% rise from 2009. In 2011, PAE spending is forecast to grow 7%. On a regional basis, Asia/Pacific will improve its share of PAE purchases with approximately 79% of PAE shipments in 2010 to about 86% of all PAE sales by 2014, Gartner indicated. China will be the largest individual consumer of PAE by 2013, accounting for just over 30% of the total market in that year.
In 2010, the worldwide automated test equipment (ATE) market is expected to have spending reach US$2.8 billion, up 140.5% from 2009 spending. Solid growth has occurred through the first three quarters of 2010, but is expected to realize a quarterly decline late this year and into early 2011, Gartner said. While the ATE market will grow substantially in 2010, it fell to very low levels in 2009, with the memory test segment declining to less than US$200 million.