NAND flash prices will be stable in the first half of 2011, but could fluctuate in the second half due to a combination of supply and demand factors, according to Transcend Information chairman Peter Shu.
The markets for smartphones and tablet PCs will significantly boost NAND flash demand in the second half of 2011, and prop up chip prices, Shu indicated. However, major NAND-chip vendors such as Samsung Electronics are set to ramp up new capacity during the same period, raising concerns about some downward pressure on chip prices, Shu said.
Some industry observers have expressed worries that rising demand for internal flash memory used in smartphones and tablets may erode the market for external memory. Shu, however, believes that demand for both built-in and external memory in phones and other consumer electronics devices is equally strong. If a tablet PC is equipped with 32GB of NAND flash memory, the device will likely feature a card slot for external storage in order to attract buyers, Shu said.
Shu previously commented that tablet PCs have changed the way people use computers, and strong demand for the increasingly-popular device could shrink the market for commodity DRAM used mainly in traditional desktops and notebooks.
Despite an expected slowdown in overall DRAM sales, the market for mobile DRAM, however, will grow through 2015 on account of rising usage in tablets, according to a recent IHS iSuppli report. The market research firm also predicts that tablet PC consumption of NAND flash will soar through 2014, when shipments eventually top 12.3 billion GB.